Two days before announcing this year’s 3.6% raise, Social Security Commissioner Frank Bisignano made a bold promise on national TV: the program, he said, “will be around for another 90 years.”
For the roughly 72 million Americans who count on a monthly check, that’s reassuring to hear. But it sits awkwardly next to the government’s own projections, which show the main retirement trust fund running dry in about six years.
Both things can be true at once. Social Security isn’t going to vanish. The real question is whether checks get cut, and that depends on what Congress does before the money runs short. Here’s where things stand.
What Bisignano said
Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box on Monday, October 12, Bisignano said: “It’s 90 years old, and it’ll be around for another 90 years.”
He said President Trump has promised to “protect and preserve” Social Security and “made it a mandate to me.” He also pointed to the agency’s work on cleaning up its records, saying about 30 million entries in its files are wrong and need fixing.
What he didn’t do was explain how the funding gap would be closed. Bisignano is one of the program’s trustees, but he said the answer will ultimately come from “the White House and Congress and the trustees.” He acknowledged there “will always be questions” about ideas like raising the retirement age, but declined to talk about specific changes to benefits or taxes.
What the official numbers say
Every year, Social Security’s trustees publish a report on the program’s finances. The 2026 report, released on June 9, found:
- The retirement trust fund (the one that pays retirees and survivors) is on track to run out of reserves in late 2032. After that, incoming payroll taxes would cover only about 78% of scheduled benefits.
- The retirement and disability funds combined would run dry in 2034, leaving enough to pay about 83% of benefits.
- The disability fund on its own is in good shape and is expected to stay solvent for the full 75-year forecast.
- Starting this year, the program is projected to spend more each year than it takes in.
That’s the key point. Running out of reserves doesn’t mean Social Security stops paying. Workers keep paying payroll tax, so money keeps coming in. But without a change in the law, the program can only pay out what it collects, and that means an automatic, across-the-board cut.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan group, says the retirement fund is now about six years from insolvency and has urged lawmakers to act fast to avoid that “deep 22% benefit cut.” The Congressional Budget Office’s estimate is even steeper, with an average cut of about 28% between 2033 and 2036.
What a 22% cut would look like
If nothing changes and the retirement fund runs out in 2032, here’s roughly how today’s checks would shrink:
| Monthly benefit | After a 22% cut | Monthly loss |
|---|---|---|
| $1,500 | $1,170 | –$330 |
| $2,170 (average retiree after the 2027 COLA) | $1,693 | –$477 |
| $2,500 | $1,950 | –$550 |
| $3,000 | $2,340 | –$660 |
These are simple illustrations using today’s dollars. Actual amounts would depend on COLAs between now and then. CRFB has estimated that a typical couple retiring around the time of insolvency could lose about $18,400 a year.
To put that in perspective, a 22% cut would wipe out far more than this year’s 3.6% raise.
Can it be fixed?
Yes, and that’s what Bisignano’s optimism rests on. The shortfall can be closed. The hard part is that every option involves someone paying more or getting less. The main ideas being discussed include:
- Raising more money, for example by lifting or removing the cap on earnings subject to Social Security tax ($192,300 in 2027) or raising the payroll tax rate
- Trimming future benefits, for example by gradually raising the full retirement age or changing how benefits are calculated for higher earners
- Changing how COLAs are calculated, using a different inflation measure
In June, House Speaker Mike Johnson said Republicans would work on a plan next year to shore up Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, but gave no details. So far, no bill to fix the trust fund has a clear path through Congress.
What this means for you right now
Nothing changes for your check today. Your 2027 COLA is confirmed, and payments continue as normal.
But if you’re planning retirement, especially if you’re in your 50s or early 60s, it’s sensible to keep an eye on this story. Any fix is likely to affect younger retirees and future beneficiaries more than people already collecting. We’ll keep following it and update you as Congress acts.
Sources: Social Security Board of Trustees 2026 report announcement, Fox Business on Bisignano’s CNBC interview, and Spectrum News.
Maria is a dedicated news writer covering the latest UK updates on DWP, PIP, State Pension Triple Lock, Child Benefit, Universal Credit, and driving licence regulations. She focuses on explaining government announcements, benefit eligibility, payment changes, pension increases, and new regulations in a clear and easy-to-understand way.